Posted by: Dave Richeson | November 6, 2008

How did the pollsters do?

A few weeks ago I wrote about Fivethirtyeight.com, the website run by Nate Silver which made political predictions based on aggregating existing polls.

You may want to check out a blog post by Carl Bialik, The Numbers Guy at the Wall Street Journal, in which he looks the accuracy of Nate Silver’s and other pollsters’ predictions.

Here’s a quick snapshot. This map gives Fivethirtyeight’s predictions immediately before the election:
Fivethirtyeight predictionAnd here were the election results (with a few regions still undecided).  It looks like Indiana was his only miss and he took no stand on Missouri. Pretty impressive.
lastmap

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