Posted by: Dave Richeson | November 6, 2008

How did the pollsters do?

A few weeks ago I wrote about Fivethirtyeight.com, the website run by Nate Silver which made political predictions based on aggregating existing polls.

You may want to check out a blog post by Carl Bialik, The Numbers Guy at the Wall Street Journal, in which he looks the accuracy of Nate Silver’s and other pollsters’ predictions.

Here’s a quick snapshot. This map gives Fivethirtyeight’s predictions immediately before the election:
Fivethirtyeight predictionAnd here were the election results (with a few regions still undecided).  It looks like Indiana was his only miss and he took no stand on Missouri. Pretty impressive.
lastmap

About these ads

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Categories

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 203 other followers

%d bloggers like this: